AI Chip Smuggling into China: Potential Paths, Quantities, and Countermeasures

This report examines the prospect of large-scale smuggling of AI chips into China. AI chip smuggling into China is already happening to a limited extent and may involve greater quantities in the future. This is because demand for AI chips is increasing in China, while the US has restricted exports of cutting-edge chips going there. First, we describe paths such smuggling could take and estimate how many AI chips would be smuggled if China-linked actors were to aim for large-scale smuggling regimes. Second, we outline factors that affect whether and when China-linked actors would aim at large-scale smuggling regimes. Third, we propose six measures for reducing the likelihood of large-scale smuggling.